Program Theory Assessment 


Social programs or policies are introduced to meet a social need. Meeting that need usually requires more thought than finding and pressing a single magic button, or taking a pill. For policymakers, it requires identifying the reasons that are causing undesirable outcomes (see Needs Assessment), and choosing a strategy from a large set of options to try to bring about different outcomes.

For example, if people are drinking unclean water, one program might be designed to prevent water from becoming contaminated—by improving sanitation infrastructure—while another may be designed to treat contaminated water using chlorine. One proposed intervention might target those responsible for the pollution. Another might target those who drink the water. One strategy may rest on the assumption that people don’t know their water is dirty, another, that they are aware but have no access to chlorine, and even another, that despite awareness and access, people choose not to chlorinate their water for other reasons (e.g. misinformation, taste, cost, etc). These programs must simultaneously navigate the capacity constraints (financial, human, and institutional) and political realities of their context. In conceiving an appropriate response policymakers implicitly make decisions about what is the best approach, and why. When this mental exercise is documented explicitly in a structured way, policymakers are conducting what can be called a program theory assessment, or design assessment.

A Program Theory Assessment models the theory behind the program, presenting a plausible and feasible plan for improving the target social condition.  If the goals and assumptions are unreasonable, then there is little prospect that the program will be effective.  Program theory assessment involves first articulating the program theory and then assessing how well the theory meets the targeted needs of the population. The methodologies used in program theory assessment include the Logical Framework Approach or Theory of Change.

The following table is a simple example of a log frame (logical framework):