Pakistan's Solar Lottery: Evaluating the Impact of Free Solar Panel Installations on Grid-Connected, Low-Income, Households in Punjab, Pakistan

In many settings, electricity is subsidized, particularly with subsidies aimed at ensuring the poorest households have access to some low quantity of electricity services.  How to deliver such subsidies cost-effectively, particularly in contexts in which utilities also struggle with electricity theft and bill non-payment, is an open question. This proposed project will evaluate a government initiative in Punjab, Pakistan to expand energy access among low-income households that are already grid-connected. Under the “Chief Minister (CM) Punjab Free Solar Panel” scheme, the Punjab Power Development Company Ltd, will provide free rooftop solar panels to 100,000 households that have historically consumed less than 200 kWh of electricity per month. Consumption at or under 200 kWh is low, covering basic needs, and therefore is the current cutoff for the lifeline electricity tariff.  This initiative is set against a backdrop of acute energy shortages in Pakistan, soaring grid electricity prices, and the rapid decline in solar photovoltaic costs, which together have catalyzed a broader transition to renewable energy in Pakistan.