Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ R&D Funding Priorities

Research and development (R&D) is widely thought to be an important determinant of improvements in living standards, health, and life expectancy. Quantifying the social returns to government R&D spending and assessing whether citizens value such spending -- two inputs that directly shape R&D budget decisions -- are central concerns for researchers and policymakers. In light of recent and substantial reductions in U.S. federal R&D spending, evidence on these inputs is more important than ever. Using surveys of experts (N=115) and nationally representative U.S. samples  (N=2,008), our paper provides new evidence on these inputs. We find that 87% of experts judge that the social benefits from increasing U.S. government R&D spending at the margin exceed the costs, with the median expert expecting benefits between $2–$2.4 per dollar invested. Furthermore, about 83% of experts and 81% of citizens support increasing R&D spending. These results imply that increases in U.S. federal government R&D spending are both valuable and politically feasible. Experts systematically underestimate citizens' support for R&D spending, highlighting scope for correcting such misperceptions to improve the alignment between citizens' views and policies.