Contractor Training and Heat Pump Adoption: Evidence from a Pilot Experiment

Buildings account for nearly one-third of US greenhouse gas emissions, making building electrification a central pillar of deep decarbonization policy. Yet adoption of heat pumps—the primary technology for electrifying space and water heating—remains far below levels required to meet climate targets, particularly among low-income households. Existing research has focused on household demand and financial incentives; however, we hypothesize that contractors also play a key role as intermediaries, shaping technology choices, installation quality, and access to subsidies.

This project examines whether gaps in contractor knowledge and skills are a binding barrier to electrification and whether contractor training programs can help overcome these constraints. Leveraging Pennsylvania’s rollout of the federally funded Training of Residential Contractors (TREC) program, we implement a randomized encouragement design with baseline and endline contractor surveys of approximately 200 contractors. We evaluate the impacts of encouragements on outcomes, including training participation, contractor knowledge, and heat-pump installation activity. We also test the effectiveness of alternative survey incentive designs.

By generating new experimental evidence on contractor behavior, this project can help improve the design of workforce and electrification policies with particular relevance for low-income communities, where carefully designed policy can reduce the risks of widespread electrification exacerbating energy burdens.