Long-Term Effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Nicaragua
While conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been demonstrated to have substantial short-term impacts of on education, there is little evidence on whether their short-term educational impacts translate into longer-term benefit. Researchers conducted a long-term follow up survey with households that benefited from a national CCT program in Nicaragua that took place from 2000-2003, They found that seven years after households stopped receiving cash transfers, students that benefitted from the program at ages with high risk of drop-out show substantial sustained gains in learning outcomes.
Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, which offer families cash grants conditional on attendance at school or preventive health visits, have expanded rapidly over the past decade, and currently operate in more than 30 countries worldwide. There is substantial evidence that, by increasing incentives for parents and helping to offset the costs of schooling, CCT programs can significantly increase participation in school in the short term. There is also a large literature showing substantial impacts of CCTs on poverty reduction, nutritional outcomes and health. Together with education, these short-term impacts correspond to the primary objectives of most CCT programs, including the program studied in this evaluation. However, due to the high cost of providing cash transfers to families, when compared to other programs increasing short-term enrollment, CCT programs can appear relatively expensive. There is little evidence to date on whether their short-term educational impacts eventually translate into longer-term educational benefits, like improved performance on standardized tests. Comprehensive assessment of such longer-term impacts, in addition to the short-term gains in various domains, is important for more accurate cost-benefit analysis of these programs.
In 2000, the government of Nicaragua launched a national CCT program, called Red de Protección Social (RPS ), that incentivized parents to invest in their children's health and wellbeing. The program lasted six years and reached over 30,000 poor rural families. The cash transfers, which were delivered every other month to a designated female caregiver within each household, came in two forms. The first was a fixed ‘food security transfer,’ which was given to all households in the program . The second transfer was a ‘school attendance transfer,’ which was available only for households with children ages 7–13 who had not yet completed fourth grade, and was contingent on those children’s enrollment and regular school attendanc e. For each eligible child, the household also received an annual cash transfer at the start of the school year, which was intended to cover the cost of school supplies.
Between 2009 and 2011 (9-11 years after the start of the program in the early treatment group), researchers conducted a long-term follow-up survey with 1,330 households in the early treatment group and 1,379 households in the late treatment group. Researchers focused on the cohort of boys who were between 9 and 12 years old in 2000. Because only children between 7 and 13 were eligible for education transfers during the program, children in the early treatment group who were between 9 and 12 years old in 2000 benefitted more intensively from the education transfers than the same age group in the late treatment group; some of the children in the late treatment group would have been too old to be eligible for the education transfers by the time the late-treatment localities were phased into the program. Furthermore, for boys, this age cohort encompasses the ages where the risk of school dropout, without the program, is high, further increasing the potential impact of the program.
Short-term impacts: Short-term estimates confirm previous research. By 2002 the program had led to a half year increase in the years of schooling completed among students in the early treatment group compared to an average schooling of 2.4 years among students in the late treatment group who were not eligible for the program until 2003. Students in the early treatment group also had a 14.2 percentage point increase in the enrollment rate compared to 78 percent among children in the late treatment group , and a 4 day reduction in the number of days missed of school in the past month from 6.46 days among children in the late treatment group . By 2004, the 9-12 year old cohort of boys in the early treatment group still had 0.49 years of education more than the same cohort in the late treatment group, despite the fact that they were no longer receiving program benefits. This indicates that, at least by 2004, the program had led to a sustained increase in the number of years of completed education for the early treatment group.
Barham, Tania, Karen Macours, and John A. Maluccio. "More Schooling and More Learning? Effects of a Three-Year Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Nicaragua after 10 Years." IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-432, July 2013.