Informing and adapting the program Jóvenes en Paz: Reducing criminal behaviors among 100,000 high-risk youth in Colombia

Colombia is developing an unprecedented violence-reduction program: paying tens of thousands of youth not to commit crimes. The government plans to identify 100,000 high-risk youth and offer them a $250 monthly stipend for 18 months conditional upon not being arrested. We will assist the government in designing systems for targeting “high-risk” individuals and evaluating impacts. Several US cities have attempted similar programs on a small scale, with qualitative success. And there is widespread rigorous evidence that conditional transfers are impactful on lower-risk populations. To assess impacts on this higher-risk population, the government wants to partner with IPA to design multiple randomized trials with different groups within the 100,000. Our assistance will help them develop targeting and programmatic approaches for different subgroups, based on theoretical mechanisms for impact. One is males being released from prison, where cash transfers can relieve liquidity constraints and subsidize employment search and self-employment. A second is adolescents at high risk of school dropout, particularly in neighborhoods with a significant gang presence, where cash can be an incentive to remain enrolled (or return to school after dropout). Our technical assistance comes at a crucial moment, and would set up multiple large-scale randomized evaluations.